The 2010 Senate Race: A new direction for Florida?

The 2010 Senate race is shaping up to be a bit of a crowded field. Chris Korge, fundraiser extraordinaire, has already announced he’s going to run. Dan Gelber, newly minted State Senator, is also expected to run. Then, there’s Allen Boyd, a true Blue Dawg from North Florida. And, no I’m not going to get into Alex Sink in this contest- she should run for governor.

So, the question becomes who wins the primary? Who can win the general? Everyone expects this to be a cakewalk against Mel Martinez, but if I may, I beg to throw a few questions your way.

Traditionally, south Florida dems cannot win statewide. It’s been the prevailing logic for, perhaps, too long. Which, arguably, makes things a bit more difficult for  Gelber and Korge, both from the Miami area and with both of them in the race, splitting the democratic vote there.

But, with democratic registration growth and shifts in the population overall, will geography be the king-maker in 2010?

Boyd put a poll in the field earlier this week. It included all the usual questions for a potential senate candidate, but also this as brought to us by the Orlando Sentinel:

Oddly enough, the survey also included a few questions about whether voters wanted a Florida politician who did not hail from the southern part of the state. Perhaps Boyd already is considering a strategy that would distance himself from Miami Democrats to bolster his conservative Democrat image.

I think its safe to say that Dan Gelber and Chris Korge would both be phenomenal candidates and Senators. But, can they convey their message enough to win in North Florida? Do they need to win in North Florida? We’ve done a lot of pieces here that makes the argument for needing to at least not get cremed in conservative counties, that candidates need to make dents in those areas because you can never win big enough in South Florida to make up for embarassing defeats in the rest of the state.

If Korge or Gelber- or any other candidate not out of the Boyd mold-  wins the primary, it will be very interesting and definitely an uphill battle for them in the general election.  But, by successfully breaking out of the South Florida stereotype, their victory would mark a new direction for Florida Democrats.

Special Session Watch: They have no choice

So we know how much red ink we have in Florida today: $2.3 Billion. What does that mean?

Well, even AFTER Charlie borrows 700 Million from the Chiles fund and sells low- only to later have to buy high-we will still have around $1.1 Billion to cut from the state budget.

What’s even worse is that the longer we wait the harder it gets, since cuts have to be made above and beyond Charlie’s lazy, election time, across the board cuts – it may be impossible to stop from eliminating services that are necessities for most and even laying off more workers – adding to the highest unemployment rate in 15 years.

We needed to get to work on a special session this week – instead of having the republicans legislators hang out in $400 a night hotel rooms and talking about how they wanted to cut health care services from already struggling Floridians.

Alex Sink called for it. Dan Gelber called for it. Papers called for it. But Cheerleader-in-chief Charlie and the Republican leadership decided to stick their heads in the sand at a beach resort.

But after weeks of wringing his hands and saying he doesn’t want to get to work – Charlie has to get to work now. But it will likely be too little too late to keep the Florida budget deficit from adding to the struggles of most Floridian middle-class and working class families.

And where is Charlie today? He’s working on the budget- but just not the one that’s important to average Floridians. He’s raising money for the RPOF.

Bob Graham vs. Charlie Crist (Hint: Always bet on Graham)

When Charlie Crist decided to raise tuitions at Florida Universities to increase the funding available to them, he tries to make it sound good at the start, but the devil is always in the details.

This time he’s up against someone who was far better at being Governor than Crist: Bob Graham.

We all love Bob Graham, and he’s serious about higher education. He’s founded a new school at the University of Florida, and he’s even suing the legislature to force them to allow the Board of Governors to set tuition.

Why? Because he’s afraid that the legislature will use the tuition increases to lower their funding of universities from the general fund.

St. Pete Times quotes Graham:

It could become almost a narcotic to cover up the real problems by shifting more of the total cost of education to students while the state does not keep up its end of the bargain

Charlie’s staff says the legislature has agreed not to pull a bait and switch. But, with a $2.3 billion dollar deficit and people like Ray Sansom running things in Tallahassee — Graham seems more likely to be right.

Special Session Watch: Crist tries to borrow more today, and Sentinel joins Alex Sink the call for a session

The AP is reporting that the SBA is meeting today to try and borrow more money from the Chiles fund. As we’ve said before Alex Sink is worried this may wipe out the fund that has taken a serious hit from the Bush economy.

Will Charlie get his way and keep borrowing money until March? We shall see, but more and more people are seeing the need for a special session.

The Orlando Sentinel penned an editorial arguing for a special session and explains where Charlie Crist’s lazy leadership might get us:

[T]his combination of using reserves and across-the-board spending cuts to balance the budget is neither prudent nor smart. Depleting savings this year will leave fewer resources if the economy doesn’t rebound next year, or if a major hurricane or other disaster strikes Florida. Cutting state-agency budgets across the board makes no distinction between high- and low-priority functions of government … The more time they waste, the harder it will be on everyone who counts on state services.

There is no question that Florida has a serious budget problem and we need serious leaders that are ready to fix it. Alex Sink is, but Charlie would rather keep borrowing Florida into a worse financial situation.

Unpacking Quinipiac: Florida voters concerned about the economy, Charlie Crist’s soft support

Alex Sink has the highest name recognition and popularity among Democratic leaders that could run for higher office next year. As the one of two statewide elected officials – this shouldn’t come as a surprise.

Many saw Chalrie Crist’s 68% approval rating from the Quinipiac University poll and just stopped reading — that’s just lazy analysis. There is a lot to look for in polls, and top-line numbers are only one piece. It may fit conventional wisdom for some to think the poll shows Charlie is unbeatable or overwhelmingly popular – but he’s neither.

Quinipiac has released two sets of numbers from there poll here and here. After looking through the numbers, there is no denying that Charlie Crist has managed to stay popular – but there is also no question that that same support is soft and that its going to get worse for him. Here’s why:

• His re-elect number is 18 points lower than his approval rating. Exactly 50% would vote to re-elect him even though most approve of him.  That is 18% of the electorate that even though they like him aren’t sure they’d vote for him again- that includes a majority of independent voters.
• The economy is the number one issue, and a majority do not approve of his handling of it.  Half of the respondents say that the economy is the most important issue in Florida – up from 8% last year. It is way higher than the next closest two: Education and Taxes, which are both at 8%. But, Charlie’s approval on the economy is lower than his approval overall; only 46% approve.
• The budget is already starting to be a sticking point – only 44% approve of his handling of the budget, and 73% of Floridians oppose his across the board budget cuts. He’s either going to have to change his mind and follow Sink’s lead, or he’ll have to cut some programs that are going to anger people by doing something that they already disagree with.
• 53% Floridians are not satisfied with the direction of Florida, and only 7% are very satisfied. This hasn’t affected Charlie so far in his term, but his “solutions” are only going to make it worse.

On the surface Charlie is popular, but it’s an inch deep. People are not as inclined to vote for him as they are to tell a pollster he’s doing a good job. Plus — he’s vulnerable on the major issues facing Florida and he doesn’t have much to say about it.

For example with the economy, he’s already lower than his overall numbers – and he’s going to do himself in by the way he is governing (or not governing). His jobs program is a website; his economic stimulus package is a press conference; and his budget solution is lazy at best.

The Boys are Back in Town

Well the boys – Sansom, Atwater, and Crist – are back in town and they got together for a dinner Charlie’s house where everyone was reminded that the government of Florida is run by white men. Mary Ellen of the Miami Herald called it a little male bonding at the Governor’s mansion, but don’t get the wrong idea their significant others were there. Including Florida’s first fiancé who asked for a basics civics lessons from Sen. Atwater.

The dinner must have gotten Sansom in a good ‘ole boy mood cause the he got up this morning and decided to loosen ethics rules, including making it easier to vote on conflict of interest among other disclosure rules.

So now that they are back in town, lets see what they’ve done – Dinner: Check, Speeches: Check. Loosen ethics rules: Check, Budget: Punt.

Charlie Crist is anti-murder, but pro-furloughs for felons?

No, Chang Gang Charlie hasn’t completely gone soft on crime; he’s just gotten too lazy to deal.

For the second time in a year, the Supreme Court has asked the other two branches of government make sure they fulfill their constitutional duty and make sure that the courts have the money to operate.

This time the call comes from Florida Supreme Court Justice Charlie Wells as he announces the date of his retirement from the Supreme Court. He told the Orlando Sentinel:

One of the necessities of government that has to be able to operate are the courts. You cannot have courts that try felony cases if you don’t have a judge, a prosecutor, a public defender, a court reporter, a court interpreter — those are just the elements required for due process, and that is a constitutional guarantee.

The Sentinel also explains that Charlie’s lazy, across-the-board budget cuts have put the court system in danger of having to shut down and granting furloughs for felons.

Come on Charlie – you were Attorney General and now you can’t even figure out why it would be important to not shut down courts and grant furloughs?

On the Agenda: Legislators Descend on Tally

On Tuesday, legislators will meet in Tallahassee to do all the routine things that follow an election. They’ll don a new suit, swear in their new members, officially elect their officers, and probably attend a party or two.

But, as the Pensacola News-Journal points out, this presents an opportunity for our legislators to informally discuss (read: lobby) the state budget crisis.

Republicans will argue that a special session shouldn’t be called until after the November 21 report and probably several days after that is reviewed- leaving the special session for January if not later. But, the pressure should be applied this week. Democratic members should pressure their Republican friends to call for a special session themselves; don’t wait for Cheerleader Charlie to do it for them.

Like DraftAlex wrote yesterday, real, important programs are at risk now, not just from more cuts, but from existence. Let me leave you with this nuggt from Republican Don Gaetz of Niceville

There has to be a major downsizing of government. Agencies have to go away.. We need to look at the elimination of agencies as opposed to telling people in nursing homes we’re going to thin their soup by another 4 percent.”

Join DraftAlex in calling for a special session.

Time to Play the Blame Game: Jim Greer, Charlie Crist, and the Story of John McCain Losing Florida

Time to return to what seems like a pastime already at Draft Alex: making fun of Charlie Crist and trying to figure out what the the hell he’s thinking.

Charlie Crist is supporting Jim Greer to stay as Republican Party of Florida chair. Not shocking, since Charlie helped get Greer the gig in 2006.

But, Greer is in a bit of hot water. Republicans, including McCain’s Florida finance chair Brian Ballard, are calling for an audit of the RPOF’s books.  You see, Florida Republicans are all pissy because Obama only won Florida by 3 pts, and they feel that Greer’s decisions of how to allocate state party funds robbed McCain of winning Florida, and in some dillusional sense, the White House.

And, before you think Florida Republicans have just dropped acid one too many times, it appears that there may be some substance to their argument.  New Port Richey Republican Joe Aloisio argues in today’s Miami Herald that funds used for charter planes, Disney tickets, and clothes (oh, yes, the clothes controversy) should have been used to get McCain on the air in more Spanish and African-American radio markets.

Let’s all get back on our medications for a second and be honest: Greer isn’t really going anywhere no matter what any audit says. He raised a lot of money, and Charlie is behind him.

So, why is Charlie falling all over himself trying to protect the safe? Earlier tonight, Charlie sent out his endorsement of Greer earlier tonight, saying…

Our Party’s future is bright and I believe that Chairman Greer is the right person to lead the Republican Party into the future and to greater success.

And so we ask, what the hell is that man thinking?

Charlie Crist: Against Sex-Offender Notifications, Amber Alerts, and Public Safety in general

So cliche to say, but: If you aren’t outraged, then you aren’t paying attention.

Have you stopped to think what will be affected by Charlie Crist’s across the board (read: lazy) budget cuts? Well, a local Jacksonville news station helps to spell it out: public safety programs are at risk.

If the Department of Law Enforcement is forced to make more cuts, two very important programs will be getting axed. They are the Amber Alert program, that helps the FDLE find missing children, and the Sex- Offender registry notifications, which after you sign up for it will notify you if a sex-offender moves into your neighborhood.

My point is this: After two years of across the board budget cuts, there’s not fat left to cut out for agencies like the FDLE. So, with more proposed across the board cuts, Florida is starting to cut out the muscle and the bone, programs that are key to the infrastructure and safety of the state.

I can’t say it enough times: Alex Sink is right, and Florida needs a special session to tackle the budget issues, so that programs critical to state safety aren’t cut.

Sign DraftAlex’s petition to pressure Charlie into calling for a special session now.